Salvador Nasralla leads in voting intentions for the 2025 elections

Several public opinion surveys rank Salvador Nasralla as the leading candidate in voting preferences for the 2025 general elections, within a context characterized by conflicts among the primary political parties of the nation.

Five months ahead of the nationwide elections in Honduras, the latest survey outcomes indicate a close race, with Salvador Nasralla, who is the present candidate for the Liberal Party, positioned at the forefront in two major polls released in May. These findings illustrate a period of crucial political choices, where potential coalitions of opposition and the solidification of nominations could significantly influence the direction of the election proceedings.

Polls place Nasralla in first place

A survey executed by the American company Expedition Strategies in May 2025 shows Salvador Nasralla achieving 25.2% of the electoral support, with Nasry Asfura from the National Party trailing at 21.4%, and Rixi Moncada of the governing LIBRE party acquiring 16%. Furthermore, the results underscore that Nasralla is the preferred choice to head a potential opposition coalition, garnering 37% backing in this context.

A second survey, carried out by the Paradigma polling company from May 4 to 17, shows comparable outcomes. In this survey, Nasralla achieves 25.6%, followed once more by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The alignment of the two surveys strengthens the view that Nasralla’s leadership is steady at this stage of the election timeline.

Inconsistencies among research and debate about data utilization

Even though similarities exist between these two analyses, there isn’t unanimous agreement on the published results. A survey conducted by TResearch International, made public in March 2025, presents a distinct arrangement: Rixi Moncada was in first place with 44.9%, Nasralla held 27.5%, and Asfura had 23.4%. The variations in outcomes are linked to the study’s timing and the methodology applied, though no additional information has been provided.

Amid the disparities, a dispute emerged regarding the spread of a purported survey linked to TResearch that ranked Nasralla in the lead. The company openly refuted the validity of the document, confirming that it was not related to any research carried out by them and repudiating the unapproved utilization of their name and logo. This incident has reignited discussions about the distortion of surveys and their influence on public opinion, particularly in a highly polarized political environment.

Open scenario and expectations for party definitions

Elections are planned for November 2025, and the political scene in Honduras is evolving with active rivalry among three primary groups: the governing party LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, having run for president in earlier elections and now part of a division of the Liberal Party, is reemerging as a key figure in the pre-election landscape.

The potential for a rival coalition is still being debated, especially among groups aiming to form a front against the continuation of the current ruling party. The backing that Nasralla is obtaining as a prospective head of a coalition indicates that his influence might extend beyond his personal campaign, contingent on the decisions made by the parties in the upcoming months.

A voting procedure characterized by institutional instability

The spread of conflicting surveys and the improper use of statistical information highlight the issues confronting the Honduran election process regarding openness and trustworthiness. Additionally, there are strains among the key political figures and societal hopes about a competition that currently seems lacking a definitive majority.

The development of the contenders, the establishment of partnerships, and the stance of established groups in relation to emerging coalitions will shape the political atmosphere in the latter part of the year. In this scenario, the part played by electoral bodies and civil organizations in monitoring and ensuring a lawful process will be vital to maintaining the country’s democratic equilibrium.